Tesla’s U.S. electric vehicle market share will drop to 18% by 2026, BofA estimates

Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk gets in a Tesla car as he leaves a hotel in Beijing, China May 31, 2023.

Tingshu Wang | Reuters

Tesla’s share of the U.S. electric vehicles market will drop to 18% by 2026, Bank of America analysts estimated in a note Tuesday.

That would be a significant drop from the 62% share of the market BofA reported Tesla had in 2022 and even further down from its peak of 78% market share in 2018.

That shift is expected as incumbent automakers such as Ford and General Motors are expected to grow their share of the U.S. EV market, according to BofA. Ford and GM, which held 8% and 5% market share respectively in 2022, are expected to grow to 14% of the market each by 2026, the analysts estimated.

Overall in that period, the breakdown of U.S. EV market share between incumbents and newer entrants, such as Tesla, would shift from a 35%/65% split to a 70%/30% split, respectively.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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